Hi Andrew Good work on the reflection. Appreciate your efforts.
Yes, I take into account vegetation loss- but vegetation losses are an in-exact science to say the least. The vegetation losses are quite low at VHF high band.
I am unsurprised that the reflections were the best signal.
Certainly signal polarization can get scrambled into "diffuse" (random pol). The polarisation was likely mixed. However, H and V components would fade in different locations (useful for diversity systems) .
It is possible that in horizontal polarization, you were getting some ground-gain on the horizontal component, which is good for 6dB on a good day. ANd that would have been well worthwhile.
If you get a chance, can you send me the coordinates, or the google placemark, of what you think was the reflection, and I'll study the ray path.
glen